Tuesday, December 19, 2006

Kofi Reads the Tea Leaves

U.N. Chief Kofi Annan said military intervention regarding Iran’s nuclear facilities would be “unwise and disastrous”. What does Kofi see that leads him to issue this caution? More U.S. troops in Iraq and increased naval presence come to mind. However these are likely not there to attack.

Israel is the likely interloper to drop bombs on Iranian nuclear facilities to cripple their capabilities. Would Israeli bombs come from their nuclear submarines or their vaunted Air Force? Either way, the U.S. would in a position to contain any Iranian retaliatory impulse with troops on Iran’s western border and two aircraft carrier groups to their south.

What would happen elsewhere in the Middle East? What would the Iraqi Shia do? Widespread protests would be likely but not a coordinated military response. Should one be mounted, the Iraqi army is poorly equipped.

The Palestinian Territories and Hezbollah would likely explode in retaliation. Israel attempted to defang Hezbollah this past summer to reduce the number of fronts it might have to fight simultaneously.

A serious carrot would be needed to stem the Palestinian outrage over Israel’s aggression. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert sweetened his peace prize rhetoric the last month. Is he dangling a big orange Palestinian homeland from a stick to occupy their attention while his other hand pulls the launching lever?

As the U.S. and Israel solve their problems outside the U.N. rubric, Kofi knows he or his successor will find out on TV about the bombs dropping. What does he sense that calls him to issue his warning now?

1 comment:

PEU Report/State of the Division said...


I was not the one asking you squat about money. Please don't post your drivel here again. Merry Christmas!