Saturday, July 03, 2010

Oil to Follow Wind & Currents

NOAA titled this the "Probability of Shoreline Threat, as of Day 120, for a 33,000 barrels/day release for 90 days." As usual, there's an asterisk:

NOAA's models "do not start with the current footprint of the spill, but rather model the spill beginning at day one, based on historical weather and current patterns."

The current footprint would show the impact of wind and currents to date. Tropical systems can have huge impacts in both areas. A low pressure system is developing in the Gulf. It is expected to move west over the spill area, eventually bringing rain to Texas. Will it bring oil as well?

I'd like to see a model for 60,000 bpd for the first 60 days, followed by 35,000 bpd for the next 42. That could bring us up to early August.

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