Friday, March 26, 2010

Pictures of PPACA

Uninsureds under Reconciliation

The top graph shows the millions of Americans without health insurance coverage under CBO projections for the Accountable Care Act (PPACA). Declines don't start in any significant way until 2014.

Conclusion: America suffers legions of uninsureds until 2014. There is a four year wait for help for most.

Bending ESHI Curve

The bottom graph shows employer sponsored health insurance under PPACA. The starting point 176 million with workplace coverage (2008 Census estimates, the latest data available). The orange line represents CBO projections for employer coverage.

Taking population growth into account, the red line indicates employers providing the benefit at 2008 levels. The blue line shows the number with employer provided insurance using the 1998 rate. The employer shortfall under reform ranges from 35 to 50 million people.

Conclusion: A seismic shift is underway, transferring responsibility to individuals and a tapped out Uncle Sam. Will he have empty pockets by 2014? Will you?

Update 3-27-14:  In 2009 I predicted PPACA would set the stage for employers to shed that pesky health insurance benefit.   NYT ran a piece with that very prediction, albeit five years later than mine.  The prediction was made by Dr. Ezekial Emanuel, who helped craft PPACA.  

Update 1-20-22:  In 2020, the average health insurance premium contribution was 6.9% of median income, while the average deductible was 4.7%, combining for a mighty 11.6% of median income.  Curve not bent in the least. 

Update 4-3-22:   The average health insurance premium more than tripled for a family plan since PPACA passed in 2010.  Cost curve bent but in the wrong direction.  Concave went convex.  

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