Wednesday, August 06, 2008

Reading the Signs

The world faces a deteriorating situation in the Middle East. Consider the logic strings embedded in a Jerusalem Post article.

Israel expects that a fourth round of UN sanctions against Iran likely won't be in place until the beginning of 2009.

The official (Israeli) said he "wasn't that optimistic" that even a weak resolution would pass by the end of the year.

He warned that by the beginning of 2009, Iran could make major strides toward producing nuclear weapons.

The obvious logical conclusion? Between now and early 2009, take military action to prevent the Iranians from making those major nuclear weapon strides. What else did the article say?

There is also interest in disrupting shipping to Iran, which could also affect the country's energy supplies.

And how might Iran respond? Might they try to reopen their shipping lanes, producing an international incident? That leads to the next article, this one from Haaretz:

The Israel Air Force's anti-aircraft division on Tuesday carried out a large exercise testing its response to simultaneous missile strikes by Syria, Hezbollah and Iran.

This comes after a June New York Times report on another IDF drill:

Israel carried out a major military drill during the first week of June that US sources say was apparently a rehearsal for a potential attack on Iran's nuclear sites.

But the information that gave me the most pause? The fact that Vice President Dick Cheney won't attend the Republican National Convention. Someone has to manage the mobilization of America's military might on behalf of our BFF, Israel, after their pre-emptive military strike.

Shooter hosted more than his share of Israeli intelligence officials, military leaders, and hawkish elected officials the last month and a half. Either he has lots of Jewish friends trained in violence or some thing's up. Gonzalo Gallegos, State Department Director of Press Relation, said today in regard to Iran, the U.S. is "proceeding opening the door to a disincentive package... we have committed partners in this."

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