Friday, June 11, 2010

Government Releases Fourth Preliminary Spill Estimate

On Day 52 of BP's Deepwater Horizon catastrophe, the government produced a higher spill estimate. The history, after initially saying no spill, is:

#1. The government projected the spill at 1,000 barrels a day on April 26

#2. BP projected the spill at 5,000 barrels a day, the government supported this for a month

BP doesn't have a Gulf of Mexico well producing this little, much less one that melted a state of the art drilling rig in two days. The Deepwater Horizon was as big as an aircraft carrier.

#3. Government - 10,000 - 19,000 barrels a day

The Interior Department massaged expert projections down to this range. Experts lower bound was 12,000 to 25,000 barrels per day, with no upper bound.

#4. Government estimate pre-riser cut is 25,000 to 30,000 barrels per day. The U.S. Geological Survey says it could be as high as 40,000 bpd.

The riser was cut a week ago. How long before spill estimates reach Matt Simmons' assessment?

100,000 to 150,000 barrels per day

The daily production of BP's Thunder Horse in the Gulf of Mexico fits within this range. It produces 138,000 barrels per day.

Note the size of the fire on the burning rig. It's over four times the height of the rig from the water. The electrical engineer who leaped from the deck said he fell 100 feet before hitting water. There he smelled methane and felt oil. Above him flames reached over 400 feet into the air. The fire was fueled by well flow, not diesel as BP asserted.

When will estimates based on pressure flow be available? Will the public get anything other than a string of paltry preliminary lies?

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