Friday, October 29, 2010

Unlikely Air Incidents & Terrorism

What are the odds that bombs would be found on planes the same day a flight decompressed from a several foot hole?  Two bombs were found on US bound flights.

“The cargo hold has always been of great concern in cargo planes because we’ve never really got our arms around the security of those planes.”
Not all packages fly in cargo planes, much less the cargo hold.  As a passenger, I've seen packages in the front of the plane, where flight personnel typically store their gear.  As for the plane that developed a two foot hole near the front left cabin door, it was going from Miami to Boston.

investigators say that they have yet to isolate the precise cause of the hole.
Officials say it is similar to cracks in the fuselage of a United 757, found last month.  A Southwest plane developed a gaping hole, pictured above.

Where had the plane been prior to landing at Miami International Airport?  Was it Dubai?  While inspection will ramp up on the packaging side of air travel, any inspection regime is hardly foolproof. (The British almost missed their package bomb, catching it only on a second lockdown.  That was after getting a printer cartridge description.)

What's greater, the error rate of an inspection effort or the chances of an exterior skin failure on the same day two bombs are found?   My guess, the error rate is the larger number.

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